Sequestration. Try saying that fast five times and see what happens. I get a bunch of tangled syllables that pretty much illustrate the potential impact. Sequestration is $600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts that will go into effect next year if Congress does not act. It’s part of the fiscal cliff we’re hearing so much about—the combination of sequestration, tax cuts that expire and the federal debt ceiling. When Congress’ Joint Select committee on Deficit Reduction (also called the Super Committee) failed to reach agreement on $2.1 trillion worth of cuts over 10 years, sequestration was triggered—and that was a threat that no one thought would ever be carried out.

However, here we are almost a year later looking nervously ahead. On October 23, the County’s Economic Advisory Commission held a meeting on the potential impact. Dr. Stephen Fuller, Director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University’s School of Public Policy, told us that no region is as vulnerable as Northern Virginia. According to Dr. Fuller, about 40 percent of the D.C. metro area’s economy is linked to federal spending. 

In FY2011, the County received $289.6 million from the federal government. Should that revenue drop as a result of the sequester, we would have to make adjustments to our budget and services to address short and long term funding issues. While only 1% of our General Fund revenue comes from the federal government, many Fairfax County public schools programs rely to a greater extent on federal dollars. There are also significant federal grant dollars in our budget and our residents receive important services that are federally funded. We are most concerned with reductions of federal funds for schools, human services, grants, and housing.

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Even if we manage to avoid the sequester, we are most likely looking at significant federal cuts to state and local governments; we think that Virginia’s share of the cuts would be in the neighborhood of $1 billion. 

I wouldn’t even begin to guess what the lame duck or 113th Congress will do—my crystal ball is still in the shop for service—but I can assure you that my colleagues and I have been watching the potential for a sequester for some time. At our September FY2012 carryover budget review we prudently set aside a reserve of $7 million to ensure that we would be able to continue critical services. 

In many ways, we are in the position of a household with maxed out credit cards and bills that can no longer be put off. We must get a handle on our debt. Our challenge—at every level of government—will be doing that without also sending our economy into severe recession and shredding the critical safety net needed by so many of our residents. It’s going to demand extraordinary amounts of creativity, hard work, and shared sacrifice. Can we do it? I believe we can.